城投债对地区产能过剩的影响：促进还是抑制*

在构建城投债影响产能过剩的理论基础上，以我国2004-2016年地级市面板数据为样本，本文检验了城投债影响产能过剩的具体效应和相关机制。研究发现：城投债与地区产能过剩之间呈现U型关系；其中城投债对产能过剩的影响在中西部地区、南方地区、大城市和金融危机爆发后更为显著；机制检验表明，地方政府借助城投债压低工业用地价格和投资交通基础设施会加剧产能过剩，且压低工业用地价格带来的效应更为严重。因此，本文从适度控制债务规模、改善体制激励措施和完善要素定价机制等方面提出相应建议。     

信贷管制、隐性契约与贷款利率变相市场化——现象与解释

本文将视角聚焦于利率市场化改革之前,重点研究金融抑制对银企信贷契约的异化。研究发现,在金融抑制背景下银企之间存在以留存贷款为表现的隐性契约,用以帮助银行在满足管制要求的同时追求利润最大化。本文对这一现象进行了理论分析与实证检验,发现隐性契约的发生与否会随着货币政策、企业特征等因素的改变而有所差异,这在一定程度上起到了利率变相市场化的作用。进一步研究则发现,这一隐性契约对企业价值产生了负向影响。     

Happiness and freedom in direct action: critical mass bike rides as ecstatic ritual,play, and temporary autonomous zones

Most leisure research does not consider collective action and social change, while most social movement research overlooks carnivality and spontaneity. A counter-example is the alternative bicycling movement critical mass (CM), a rebellious, liberatory leisure and cultural event. CM is goal-oriented and a libidinal expression of participant desire. This paper investigates CM’s production of happiness and freedom via three heterodox theories. Ecstatic rituals are repetitive, cathartic collective events that people engage in to express joy and flaunt convention. Political theories of play interpret individual’s physically-embodied, creative, and performative actions. Temporary autonomous zones are spatial locations of resistance to authority that evade state detection and suppression. CM – unlike standard bike races or conventional movement protest – transcends the limitations of physical exercise, lackadaisical leisure, and militant direct action. Instead it is a hybrid form of collective action, combining premeditated ritual, rebellious play, and mobile freedom-seeking.     

The effects of capacity reduction policy under the interest rate peg in China

Capacity reduction has been a recurrent theme in China's economic policy. The central government takes various administrative measures to remove excess capacity, accumulated mainly due to underpriced production factors and distorted incentives. I evaluate the de-capacity policy in a series of models and prove that its effects depend critically on its persistence and monetary policy regime. Under an interest rate peg, a transient policy that changes markup temporarily is ineffective and even expansionary, whereas a persistent policy is effective due to a negative wealth effect. A permanent de-capacity policy can lead to over-reactions in macro variables because the interest rate peg adds positive feedback to the economy. Therefore, the de-capacity policy has greater uncertainty under the interest rate peg. As a policy tool, it easily deviates from its target and brings about excessive volatility. However, long-run price stability and a gradually advanced de-capacity policy are conducive to the achievement of policy targets.     

物流企业开展TIR运输业务研究

针对TIR运输,通过分析其具有的可简化通关程序、提高运输时效等优势,结合当前我国全面开放跨境道路运输的利好政策,提出了我国物流企业开展TIR运输业务的建议,以推动我国物流企业TIR运输业务的发展。     

石油海运领域运筹优化方法应用研究综述

为研究运筹方法在石油海运领域的应用及前景,检索1980年至今的国内外相关文献,系统归纳提出石油海上运输优化问题的场景分类:海上运输优化、在港作业调度优化以及油船驳运,分析并对比了各研究的模型差异及算法优劣,最后提出了全局优化调度、根据实际添加特殊约束和设置变量、利用规划约束及人工智能等方式弥补线性规划求解的不足等研究建议。     

低碳视角下多式联运经济性能实例分析--以郑明物流为例

为了进一步研究铁路运输与其他运输方式开展多式联运的经济性能,在阐述多种运输方式性能差异的基础上,以郑明物流为例,通过分析其特定运输路线现有运输方式的能源消耗、碳排放量和运输过路费等指标,提出在不同月份和不同时期的多式联运优化方案,为物流企业开展多式联运提供借鉴。     

铁路集装箱运输与社会经济协同发展关系分析

针对我国铁路集装箱运输和社会经济发展的关系,选取了能够表征两者发展的时间序列变量,运用协同学理论,构建了铁路集装箱运输和社会经济发展关系的协同度量化模型,对近18年来两者的综合发展水平、协调度及协同度变化进行了分析。结果表明该模型能客观全面地评价铁路集装箱运输和社会经济耦合因素协同发展水平和状态,表明铁路集装箱运输发展和社会经济增长两者密切相关,二者在互动中循环发展。     

中国货币政策利率传导效率研究:2008-2017

随着利率市场化进程的不断推进以及商业银行利率定价机制的发展,中国货币政策利率的传导效率也不断提高。基于2008年1月-2017年6月的宏观时间序列数据和微观调研数据,本文检验了中国货币政策利率对银行贷款利率的传导效率。总体而言,基准利率是影响金融机构贷款加权平均利率的主要因素。分时间段看,贷款利率浮动限制放开之后,货币市场利率对金融机构贷款利率的传导效率显著提升;基准利率对金融机构贷款利率的影响略有下降,但仍然占主导。对商业银行贷款利率定价的微观机制进行探讨后,本文发现贷款利率定价机制的变化是中国利率传导效率出现变化的主要原因。进一步的分析表明,资金来源和市场利率波动均是影响货币市场利率传导效率的重要因素。最后,本文就如何提高货币政策利率传导效率提出了政策建议。本文研究对完善价格型货币政策体系以及中国货币政策框架转型具有重要的实践意义。     

Time-frequency co-movements between oil prices and interest rates: Evidence from a wavelet-based approach

This paper investigates time–frequency co-movements between crude oil prices and interest rates. To test this relationship, the study applied a continuous wavelet and cross wavelet approaches to data from West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil prices and interest rates in the United States (U.S.). Results from the sample period revealed significant relationships, in the intermediate term, between WTI crude oil prices and U.S. interest rates. Moreover, co-movements between oil price and interest rate variables were especially sensitive during abnormal political events and periods of financial ‘meltdown’. We further use Partial Wavelet Coherence (PWC) and Multiple Wavelet Coherence (MWC) methods to investigate the impacts of five major control variables namely GDP growth, unemployment, three-month Treasury bill, CPI index and industrial production index. The results show a powerful impact of control variables on oil-interest rates co-movements under different frequencies. Finally, we show evidence of co-integrating long run relationship between oil markets and control variables. These results have important implications for energy investors and policy makers.